A science evening with Bill Barnes at IDEAS
The real hoax is the "Hoax": Why Conspiracies are mathematically impossible.
Why is it so easy to fool ourselves?
Conspiracy theories rely on the presumption that participants will be reliable in maintaining the deception, and not "blowing the whistle". Logically, this is an either-or choice; either they will continue lying, or they will tell the truth. Mathematically, this is known as a binomial condition. The probability of girls and boys in a family and coin flips will be used as elementary examples.
Whether or not a conspiracy is successful depends on two parameters: the number of participants, and their reliability. It will be shown that even assuming superhuman reliability, the number of conspirators in several current conspiracy theories renders them mathematically impossible.
The probability that a conspiracy theory will be exposed becomes greater and greater as time goes on. Depending on size and reliability, It becomes virtually certain that after some length of time a whistle-blower will expose it.
A more sophisticated and elegant analysis makes it possible to calculate this "shelf life". Again, this shows that several current conspiracy theories would have been exposed by now if they had actually existed.
Finally, there is the question of why conspiracy theories are so popular? The naïve human brain is quite bad at estimating likelihoods. The evolution of our species allows us to speculate upon the reasons we are strongly biased toward identifying causal links where there are none.
to sign up: https://www.cognitivestudios.org/class-schedule-1/
Class fee: $20/available spaces 14.
Monday, April 23 at 7:30
Jan 6, 2025, 11 AM to 12:30 PM
Volleyball at LCSJan 6, 2025, 6:30 to 8 PM
Northern Bronze Handbell Ensemble ConcertJan 11, 2025, 7 to 9 PM